By Donald C. Fry

Recent news about Maryland’s front-running gubernatorial candidates has offered details about their campaign fundraising, their personal incomes and charitable contributions, all of which make for interesting news copy

But these factoids are not the most important things that conscientious voters want to know about Governor Martin O’Malley and his challenger, former Governor Robert Ehrlich – the major party candidates Marylanders will choose between in November, barring a monumental primary election surprise.

Most voters want to know what the candidates think about on key issues that will define our state’s economic climate and quality of life for the next four years. Even of more interest, they would like to know, specifically and in compelling detail, what the candidates might do that is innovative, creative, resourceful, realistic, practical, strategic, or just plain solid public policy.

If we drill deep into the candidates’ web sites, we can access finely-tuned message points about issues, priorities and general strategies designed to resonate with key target audiences. But this year’s gubernatorial election presents a unique opportunity to choose between two candidates who know the territory and the mechanisms of the office that they seek extremely well.

In this election we have a situation where it is eminently reasonable to ask the candidates to venture beyond the message points, sound bites and bumper stickers. They have held the job. They know, or should know, the issues and the challenges.

From my perspective as a business advocate, I would like to drill past the five-point plans or web site issue papers. All voters would benefit from a better glimpse into the essence of these candidates – their core inclinations and perspectives regarding how they might address some very specific and well-defined challenges Maryland’s next governor will face.

For those planning candidate debates, here are a few topics and questions for both gubernatorial candidates, and all candidates for state offices, for that matter, that I respectfully suggest:

• Fiscal policy. The state faces an estimated $1.5 billion shortfall in the FY 2012 budget that the next governor will have to balance without the benefit of substantial federal stimulus funding. What would be your funding priorities in the next budget year? How, specifically, might you accomplish them? If increased taxes and fees are not part of your solution, what state programs or departments will you eliminate or vastly reform?

• Transportation funding. The revenue stream to fund the state’s transportation infrastructure is at a historic ebb. The state’s six-year transportation capital plan has been reduced by $2.1 billion in the last 15 months and Maryland commuters endure congestion that ranks among the nation’s worst, according to national experts. What is your plan for catching up when it comes to funding transportation in Maryland? How would you divide the funding between highways and transit?

• Business tax credits and incentives. Maryland’s lawmakers have been traditionally lukewarm to enacting business tax credits as a way to nurture economic development. Meanwhile, a state commission is considering ways to begin a process leading to potentially reducing business incentives. What’s your position on business tax credits and other business incentives?

• Unfunded pension and health plans for government employees. Maryland faces rising costs of its retirement pension plans for state employees. The state’s unfunded pension liability has increased $14.7 billion in the last five years. A task force has been created to examine this and the issue of the state’s largely under-funded health care plans for retirees. What, in your opinion, are some of the key retirement-funding issues you would like the task force to focus on? What are your thoughts of a defined contribution plan for future state hires?

• Competitive business environment. Maryland has many advantages as a place to do business. But for decades, Maryland has not been viewed as a strong competitor for business growth and development. Experts cite above average taxes, high business costs, and regulatory uncertainty as detracting from Maryland’s otherwise strong potential for business growth. How would you, as governor, instill a new tone on the part of government to view business as a partner for economic growth and not as an adversary? What specifically, would you do to create a more competitive business environment in Maryland? How would you engage business leadership to help solve the state’s challenges?

• Energy. Maryland imports more than 25 percent of electricity used by customers in the state. What would be your strategy for strengthening transmission infrastructure and increasing generating capacity within Maryland to ensure residents and businesses of adequate future electricity supply at reasonable costs?

This is just a sample of fiscal and economic issues where voters could benefit greatly from specific answers directly from the candidates. The closeness of the race, as measured by recent polls, creates a competitive atmosphere that might encourage candidates to range beyond the message points in their public debates and discussions with voters.

Plus, the recession has impacted everyone in our state and voters, now more than ever, deserve the clearest thinking and most lucid discussion of our future that candidates can muster.

I know that political campaigns are not academic exercises and that campaign rhetoric is geared toward generating passion rather than articulating policy.

But if there was ever an opportunity for voters to benefit from a more detailed discussion about our future between two seasoned candidates who have up-close, first-hand knowledge of how our state government works — this is the year. The voters deserve honest answers to these questions and our state is in need of creative solutions to these challenges.

Donald C. Fry is president and CEO of the Greater Baltimore Committee. He is a regular contributor to Center Maryland.

Previous Center Maryland columns by Donald C. Fry:

Biotech tax credit more popular than ever, but the ‘rock-concert’ lines are gone

Bad timing for upcoming business tax report

For economic indicators, the ‘whipsaw’ effect continues

Do census data foretell a Baltimore city population rebound?

Remember the value of business after the election

New report ranks Baltimore among stronger regions to weather the recession

New living wage proposal: wrong idea, wrong time for Baltimore

Northeast needs more attention from federal rail planners

New national report has familiar ring for Maryland bioscience advocates

New report underscores Maryland’s work force development challenges

State’s health initiative: a ‘win-win’ for employers and their workforces

As Baltimore hikes taxes, are state’s counties next?

After the ‘fiber from heaven’ scramble, what’s next?

BRAC growth no longer a future event – it’s happening now

Economic development is a contact sport

Despite the recession, bioscience growth still percolates in Baltimore

State stumbles in enacting new education collective bargaining process

Wind power has potential in Maryland, but solar emerges as early renewable option

It’s not good to be clueless in cyberspace

Amid fiscal shuffle, Maryland lawmakers pass measures to spur business growth

Thankfully, Baltimore leads with substance over style in luring Google

Leave damaging transportation provisions out of the budget

Amended budget continues recession-induced fund shifts and stimulus rescue

General Assembly setting stage for combined reporting push in 2011

Wrong timing for proposal to change Baltimore City school board

Baltimore City isn’t alone in facing pension funding challenges

A government investment program that delivers

Proposed transportation fund raid — a bad habit continues

Where’s the outrage over crime?

Small business is where innovation lives

At long last, the jungle has come to Montgomery County.

Politics in the county have never been as polite as people make it out to be. With its proximity to Washington, D.C., and hundreds of politically ambitious people running around, you always find a few epic Democratic primaries under way –- elections that defy conventional wisdom, alter alliances and create lifelong nemeses.

Still, when you think of some of the slugfests that have taken place through the years in Baltimore City and Prince George’s County and elsewhere in the state, well, Montgomery County politics often seems pretty tame – and pretty lame. Even the most legendary Democratic primaries in Montgomery have been driven by questions like who’s smarter, or better-connected on Capitol Hill, or more pure when it comes to accepting money from special interests, rather than the rawest of bare-knuckle politics.

But this year is noteworthy.

Bitter Democratic primary contests are taking place in half of the county’s state Senate districts –- races that are being propelled by personal animus more than ideological differences. In at least two of the four districts, you can say, quite simply, that the challenger and the incumbent simply don’t like each other. And in three of the four districts, it’s fair to say that the challenger doesn’t want to wait around for the incumbent to voluntarily move on. Each race is guaranteed to get even nastier in the final two weeks.

So here are quick tip sheets on the races in Districts 14, 17, 19 and 39 – which, as the Sept. 14 primary approaches, remain among the hottest (and hardest to call) in the state. We’re predicting two challengers to win and two incumbents to prevail. But we could be completely wrong in each and every race.

(Full disclosure: I am not completely unbiased when it comes to the Dist. 17 race. I covered both the incumbent, Sen. Jennie Forehand, and the challenger, former Del. Cheryl Kagan, for seven years in Annapolis. Kagan and I became friends –- and after she left the legislature and I stopped covering Maryland full time, I served on the board of a nonprofit group she was running. I am rooting for her in this primary. But Forehand has been a dedicated public servant –- and I have a personal connection to her as well. Forehand is the neighbor of a dear friend of mine, and when I first moved to Maryland to cover Annapolis, Forehand was very kind to me, turning over some of her briefing books and other material as I was learning the ropes. I’ll always be grateful for her help and generosity.)

DISTRICT 14 –- Olney, Burtonsville, parts of Silver Spring
The incumbent: Sen. Rona Kramer (D)
The challenger: Del. Karen Montgomery (D)
Tale of the tape: This is the one Senate primary in Montgomery County where ideology plays an important role. Kramer, daughter of former Montgomery County Executive Sid Kramer (D) and sister of Del. Ben Kramer (D), is a prominent county businesswoman –- and votes like one in Annapolis. This has infuriated unions and other progressive interests in the state and county, and in Montgomery they have found a more traditional liberal willing to sacrifice a safe House seat to promote their agenda. Both Kramer and Montgomery were elected to their respective posts in 2002.
The X Factor: Turnout should be a little higher in District 14 than in most of the rest of the county because Montgomery’s decision to give up her House seat, along with Del. Herman Taylor’s (D) ill-advised run for Congress, has created a highly-competitive race for the district’s three House seats, with only one incumbent seeking re-election. There’s also a competitive primary for the local County Council seat.
Other Factors: The last round of campaign finance reports showed that Kramer has yet to spend a ton on her political survival; this is somewhat surprising. Perhaps there will be a last-minute deluge of spending.
The unions are targeting this race –- but they’ve got a lot of balls in the air at the moment and it’s hard to say where this falls on the priority list. They could push the challenger over the top –- but the Kramer name still means a lot in Montgomery County.
Wild Guess: Tilts ever so slightly to Kramer

DISTRICT 17 — Rockville, Gaithersburg and Garrett Park
Incumbent: Sen. Jennie Forehand (D)
Challenger: Former Del. Cheryl Kagan (D)
Tale of the tape: A lot of people are comparing this race to the epic primary that took place in Montgomery County in 2006, when law professor Jamie Raskin ousted then-Sen. Ida Ruben (D), who, like Forehand, was a 70-something incumbent who had been on the political scene for more than three decades.
That comparison doesn’t really hold up; Raskin and Ruben couldn’t have been more different. Raskin is a constitutional scholar with far-left politics; Ruben was a political insider who reveled in bringing home the bacon. Raskin had a sunny personality; Ruben was nobody’s favorite, although many people owed her for what she was able to bring home. In Annapolis, she often got her way because people didn’t want to get in her way.
Forehand is the exact opposite. She’s one of the nicest, most gracious people around, and that has helped her constituents at times. She has been visible on women’s issues, anti-smoking efforts, and for her advocacy of the Intercounty Connector highway.
But voters are right to wonder: after 32 years in Annapolis, is that all there is? Forehand simply should be more of a player, more of a force. And there is scant evidence that she has ever been able to stand up to all-powerful Senate President Mike Miller (D), either publicly or privately.
That’s a tough, subtle and somewhat sophisticated argument for Kagan to make to average voters. So what she has been selling instead is her energy and vitality –- which are plainly evident. It allows Forehand and her allies to argue that Kagan is practicing a not-so-subtle form of ageism –- and maybe she is. But Kagan has attempted to promote her own assets while being respectful of the incumbent.
Still, some Montgomery insiders compare Kagan unfavorably to Tracy Flick – a rap she will forever be struggling to overcome.
Kagan is a master political strategist whose own record in Annapolis was mixed –- she never seemed to completely find her niche. But that should be a lot less difficult in the Senate, where you don’t always have to get along to go along. Kagan has similar views and priorities as Forehand –- but a lot more political courage, and a far more nimble political mind, and a dizzying array of political and policy contacts. So it’s hard to argue that District 17 voters shouldn’t take a chance on Kagan. Forehand isn’t going to get more powerful -– and many people thought she should have taken her victory lap four or eight years ago. Kagan, who is 49, has decades to amass power in Annapolis and make an impact.
The X Factor: The district’s three House incumbents are supporting Forehand. But they have no opposition and haven’t had to campaign much on their own behalf. Kagan has been careful to tell voters how much she admires and is looking forward to working with the three delegates.
Other Factors: Kagan has run the most energetic campaign in Montgomery County this election cycle. Forehand seems to be putting up a good fight recently, but has clearly been outhustled for most of the campaign.
Wild guess: If Kagan properly identifies her vote, she’ll win.

DISTRICT 19 –- Aspen Hill, parts of Rockville and Silver Spring
The incumbent: Sen. Mike Lenett (D)
The challenger: Del. Roger Manno (D)
Tale of the tape: To be very flip -– and not altogether inaccurate -– about it, this race can be simply characterized as Asshole vs. Bigger Asshole.
Lenett was elected four years ago, winning a three-way open seat primary against two longtime delegates who had resented each other for years (and their principal supporters had resented each other for even longer). So Lenett kind of plowed his way through the middle, and he came off like a very energetic breath of fresh air.
But it was evident from the beginning that Lenett held a very high opinion of himself, and might not work and play that nicely with others. And that has proven to be the case to a degree.
Manno, a former Capitol Hill staffer, is just as ambitious –- but a little less like a bull in a china shop. He appears to have done a better job of reaching out to key community leaders and veteran politicians in the district than Lenett has – and Lenett may be paying the price.
The X Factor: As in District 14, there is a free-for-all House primary taking place in 19, with Manno’s decision to challenge Lenett and the retirement of veteran Del. Hank Heller (D).
Other Factors: Mike Miller has endorsed Lenett, but Montgomery County politicians seem split on the race.
Wild Guess: Leans Manno. Just a hunch. A legislative district is small enough that if you make enemies, it can come back to bite you.

District 39 – Montgomery Village, parts of Germantown and other upcounty communities
The incumbent: Sen. Nancy King (D)
The challenger: Del. Saqib Ali (D)
Tale of the tape: Another case of a race where the two candidates really dislike each other. This dates back to 2007, when King, who was then a delegate serving with Ali, edged him out in a county Democratic committee vote to fill a Senate vacancy. Ali almost immediately signaled his intention to challenge King this year — and he kept his word.
King and Ali come from two different, but time-honored Montgomery County paths to political power, which are almost always at odds: King, the suburban mom who paid her dues and worked her way up the political ladder, from president of the county PTA to school board to state House to state Senate; Ali, the young man in a hurry. Ali ousted an incumbent delegate in the 2006 Democratic primary and his colleagues in the District 39 delegation have always viewed him with suspicion.
But Ali is nothing if not energetic; he’s raised a lot of money and put together a fresh coalition of supporters. King is relying on her establishment ties and traditional Montgomery County electoral partners.
The X Factor: King has gone thermonuclear on Ali in recent weeks, with a series of attack mailers and an attack website, questioning the challenger’s commitment to his work and his fitness for office.
Other Factors: What can Ali do to adequately respond?
Wild Guess: Two weeks ago, this race felt like a tossup. But it’s hard to believe that King hasn’t done some damage to Ali with her attacks. For that reason alone, we’ll say leans King.

Josh Kurtz is editor of Environment & Energy Daily, a Capitol Hill publication. He can be reached at joshkurtz92@gmail.com.

Previous Center Maryland columns by Josh Kurtz:

Murphy the Smurf

A Gene for Public Service

No Agnew Here

The Full Montgomery

Shock and Tawes

Uly’s Gold

Death and Deadlines

Bad News for Democrats From Washington to Washington County

Mr. Smith Goes … Where?

End of the Line for Vallario?

Mission: Control

Post Plays Favorites

Red Storm Rising

Michael & Me

Wanted: Fresh Blood

Taylor-Made

Black and Blue?

Slugfest

Take Me Back to Old Virginny

The Political Lives of Peter Franchot

Bob and Weave

How to Make Prince George’s County King

Kane is Able

To Be Frank

Gay Rights and Political Wrongs?

The Washington Post Goes to War

Snow Job

Unsolicited Advice for Ehrlich — Wait Till 2014

The Early Bird Gets the Worm?

Wayne’s World May Be Another Planet

Miller Time Comes Early

Owings Owes an Explanation

By Sean R. Malone

Baltimore City is Maryland’s only major league city – rich in history, architecture, traditional neighborhoods and culture. Major hospitals, major institutions of higher education, a major port and, of course, the Orioles and Ravens, who actually play downtown in beautiful stadiums, inhabit Charm City. Much like other big cities, Baltimore has a major league crime problem, fueled by crushing poverty and a significant addiction rate among our population.

This crime problem is not new, and in the past decade under the leadership of Mayors O’Malley, Dixon and Rawlings-Blake, progress has been steady and significant. In fact, Baltimore’s crime rate is at its lowest level in decades and appears to be declining further this year. However, all would agree for our size, the crime rate remains too high. Far too many senseless acts of violence happen on our streets.

Baltimore has seen changes in Mayors, Police Commissioners, Governors and Council members. Competitive primaries are had every election year for most offices and crime is always a top issue for voters. Yet for over two decades, the City’s voters — due to a lack of qualified candidates — have been denied the opportunity to make a real choice in deciding who will run the State’s Attorney’s Office.

Since 1987, when Baltimore’s favorite son Kurt Schmoke ascended from State’s Attorney into the Mayor’s office, Baltimore City has not seen a competitive race for its top elected crime fighting position. Stuart Simms and Patricia Jessamy, both products of Schmoke’s prosecutorial office, respectively held the title of State’s Attorney, and but for nominal challenges, neither faced credible opposition in primary elections.

Ms. Jessamy is smart, tenacious and at times, a pugnacious public figure. She, by all accounts, works very hard as the administrator of an underfunded, overworked, State’s Attorney’s office. She is very visible in Annapolis, fighting for changes in State law and funding for her office. She is a consistent presence in the City’s communities, schools and neighborhoods.

In a city where African-American women comprise the most influential voting bloc, Ms. Jessamy, as the first African-American woman to hold this office, would by conventional wisdom be unbeatable.

In fact, so perfunctory has this race become, that as the incumbent, Ms. Jessamy only saw fit to raise $28,000 to defend her seat, an amount inadequate to defend a council seat, much less a city wide position. In fact, until the filing deadline, this year did not appear to be any different than the previous three elections, when Ms. Jessamy faced little known, underfunded and, by all measures, lesser qualified opposition and rolled to relatively easy electoral victories.

However, the filing deadline this year produced a challenger named Gregg Bernstein. While not well known outside of legal circles, among members of the bar, Mr. Bernstein is well regarded as one of Baltimore’s very best trial attorneys. He is a focused, effective, advocate known for intense preparation and skillful presentation.

In the rough and tumble world of white collar criminal defense and civil litigation, Bernstein has garnered a stellar reputation and built a very successful practice. He is a lawyer’s lawyer. Whether these attributes translate into political success will soon be determined by voters.

In early July, political gadflies gave Mr. Bernstein no real shot at unseating Ms. Jessamy. However, Mr. Bernstein has waged an aggressive and effective campaign fueled by the belief that Baltimore residents could be receptive to the argument that change is needed in the Baltimore City’s State’s Attorney’s Office due to what he claims is the lowest conviction rate in the State.

He pledges to focus resources on convicting the most violent offenders and has promised to bring his formidable trial skills to bear in the prosecution of those offenders. His campaign has been respectful of Ms. Jessamy, but aggressive against her record; a difficult but necessary balance if Mr. Bernstein hopes to persuade Baltimore’s voters.

The contrast between the candidates is stark. Ms. Jessamy is an administrator who has not tried a significant case in her 15-year tenure. Mr. Bernstein, who is a former federal prosecutor, makes a living preparing and trying cases in front of juries and judges.

Ms. Jessamy prides herself on being independent and has proven that over many years. Unafraid to engage in public fights with Mayors, Council members or Police Commissioners, Ms. Jessamy acts as public advocate for her office constantly fighting for more resources.

Mr. Bernstein has promised a more cordial relationship with stakeholders and has openly criticized Ms. Jessamy for what he sees as her inability to work with other partners in the criminal justice system, a posture that serves as an impediment to effective prosecutions.

Ms. Jessamy ‘s website boasts the endorsements of five State Senators, two State Delegates, the Clerk of Court, the Sheriff and three City Council people. Mr. Bernstein’s site does not tout any endorsements; however he has notably and very publicly received the support of Police Commissioner Frederick Bealefeld, Baltimore’s most successful police chief in 30 years.

According to the latest campaign reports, Mr. Bernstein has a significant fundraising advantage, while Ms. Jessamy continues to enjoy much higher name recognition among voters. Mr. Bernstein appears to have the resources to run campaign commercials on radio and television. In fact, his first ad was just released. Ms. Jessamy will need to pick up her fundraising activities if she is to match Bernstein’s activity.

Despite his financial edge, Mr. Bernstein still will have to execute a stellar campaign plan to overcome the advantages Ms. Jessamy’s incumbency and name recognition brings her candidacy.

Conventional wisdom, supported by past electoral results in city wide elections, would indicate Ms. Jessamy wins this race based on voter demographics, the current crime trends and her popular appeal in many areas of Baltimore.

However, conventional wisdom does not always carry the day in Baltimore electoral cycles. One need only look back to Martin O’Malley’s upset of Lawrence Bell in 1999 and Joan Pratt’s defeat of Julian Lapides in 1995 to find examples of well run campaigns, by capable candidates that resulted in city wide upsets .

No matter how this election turns out, for the first time in a very long time, Baltimore voters finally have a choice to make in the race for State’s Attorney. The resulting public debate is healthy, the candidates qualified and the ramifications significant. Baltimore voters are smart. Let’s hope they are paying attention.

Sean R. Malone is a partner with the law firm of Harris Jones and Malone. His practice focuses in the areas of government relations and public sector labor relations.

Center Maryland political columnist Josh Kurtz is scheduled to join Midday’s Weekly News Review today (Friday) from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. on WYPR 88.1 FM. Kurtz, who is also editor of Environment and Energy Daily on Capitol Hill, will be discussing a variety of Maryland political news, including the Center Maryland poll results that were released earlier this week.

A new study of the regional and national housing market paints a gloomy picture, concluding that homebuilding in Maryland has slowed considerably and hurt both jobs and revenues.

The study – conducted by the Baltimore-based Sage Policy Group for the Maryland State Builders Association – also found that declining appraisal values and an increase in foreclosures have made credit a precious commodity. Recent positive housing figures are mostly a result of tax credits through the federal stimulus package, which are set to expire, according to the study.

While the housing industry across the nation is affected, according to the study, some of the problems are particularly visible in Maryland.

The figures in the study indicate that consumers are very reluctant to purchase houses in today’s rocky economic environment. On a national level, there were 17 percent fewer home sales in June 2010 than in June 2009, when the economy was arguably in worse shape

Perhaps even more discouraging is the fact that starts of single-family homes, “which correlate to the direction of homeownership in America,” are down more than most other types of home sales, according to the report. What’s more, the number of mortgage applications has also been declining steadily despite “historically low mortgage rates.”

Critics may point out that home sales in June were considerably higher than those in May. The study argues that the increase can be credited to the impending expiration of tax credits provided by the federal economic stimulus package. The expiration date was initially June 30, and has been moved to September 30. Nevertheless, the prospect of homebuyer tax credits was enough to raise home sales for a very short period. The larger trends show that the increase was merely a blip, according to the study.

In Maryland, the outlook may be worse than that of the rest of the country. In the beginning of 2010, the number of new housing units authorized for construction in the State was less than 40% of the amount authorized in the beginning of 2005, when the housing market was at its peak.

The news is just as bad for those who construct the actual homes. The study shows that 46,700 construction jobs in Maryland were lost between December 2007 and February 2010, over a 20% decrease. Nationally, over 3 million construction-related jobs have been lost since 2005, which amounts to $145 billion in wages.

According to the study, one of the key factors behind the housing market slump is that trends over the last few years have made it more difficult for consumers to find credit. The spike in foreclosures has caused appraised values to decline, and as a result lending activity has declined as well.

The study references a survey conducted by the National Association of Homebuilders, which found that the availability of credit for acquisition, construction and development (ADC) loans has “worsened every quarter for ten quarters in a row.” Not only are such loans less common, but they have steadily fallen in value over the last three years. Uncertainty on the part of home buyers has created uncertainty on the part of those who finance home sales.

Because less credit is available, property values shrink and credit becomes even more difficult to come by. Instead of adhering to its traditional cyclical, up-and-down nature, the housing market is mired in a cycle of declining value and shrinking credit, according to the study. While consumers are less likely to purchase a house, those who do want to buy one are likely to have trouble finding the necessary credit. In June 2010, Maryland had the tenth most foreclosure activity in the Country, a chief contributing factor to credit issues.

There is almost nothing in the study that indicates that conditions might improve in the near future. In fact, the study concludes that “the homebuilding industry nationally and in Maryland is not positioned to recover in the near term.” In fact, the study predicts that because of the false improvements created by tax credits, conditions will worsen before they start to improve.

Click here to read the full Sage Policy Group report.

By Donald C. Fry

Last spring the Greater Baltimore Committee, in surveying members of Maryland’s bioscience community, asked a straightforward question: What is the single most important thing the state can do to ensure a robust bioscience industry?

The survey, conducted with MdBio, a division of the Tech Council of Maryland, yielded an overwhelmingly straightforward answer. Nurture more private investment in bioscience companies, said 70 percent of respondents, most of whom favored expanding the state’s biotech investment tax credit.

The other two most often-cited responses were to encourage collaboration in the bioscience sector and to support education and training in science-oriented disciplines.

The survey appears to confirm what members of the bioscience and economic development communities have been telling us anecdotally for several years – that the biotech tax credit is a highly popular and productive development tool. It leverages a strategic public commitment into private-sector investment that drives the growth of an industry looked upon by many, both locally and nationally, as an important driver of our state’s 21st century economy.

Maryland’s biotech investment tax credit first became available in 2007, when $6 million was budgeted annually for the incentive that enables investors to claim a 50 percent credit – up to $250,000 – against their state income taxes for eligible investments in qualified Maryland bioscience companies.

The new incentive prompted investors to begin lining up as early as 24 hours in advance of July 1, when the tax credits became officially available, in order to qualify for the limited amount of credits. The line of bioscience investors became a July 1 ritual for the next three years.

In 2008, Governor Martin O’Malley proposed to increase available biotech investment tax credits to $12 million in 2009 and to $24 million by 2013 as part of a plan to invest $1 billion in bioscience industry growth over 10 years. The state’s Life Sciences Advisory Board also recommended strengthening the biotech investment tax credit.

But the recession intervened, and in 2009 lawmakers kept funding for the tax credits at the $6 million level. In a last-minute budget item in the waning days of the 2010 General Assembly, lawmakers added $2 million, bringing available tax credits to $8 million for FY 2011, which began July 1.

Fortunately, hearing bioscience advocates’ pleas to find a better way to process and approve investors for the credits, the state launched an online applications process this year, which eliminated the annual “rock-concert” line of anxious investors. No doubt, it tested the July 1 capacity of network servers at the Maryland Department of Business and Economic Development, which administers the biotech tax credit.

The popularity of this tax credit serves as an example of what many consider to be the highest and best use of a state resource to generate private-sector business growth.

That’s not to say that the bioscience community doesn’t have some issues with the biotech investment tax credit. For instance drawbacks cited by survey respondents included that the tax credits are not available for investments to start-up companies and cannot currently be used for owners who invest in their own businesses.

Nevertheless, there is an overwhelming consensus among those on the ground in our state’s bioscience industry that the biotech investment tax credit is a highly effective development tool that has made a quantifiable difference in Maryland’s bioscience growth.

In a time when many state lawmakers are seeking ways to cut state business incentives, this is one incentive that is delivering measurable growth and for which availability should be expanded as soon as possible to the funding levels originally envisioned by the governor and his life science advisors.

Donald C. Fry is president and CEO of the Greater Baltimore Committee. He is a regular contributor to Center Maryland.

Previous Center Maryland columns by Donald C. Fry:

Bad timing for upcoming business tax report

For economic indicators, the ‘whipsaw’ effect continues

Do census data foretell a Baltimore city population rebound?

Remember the value of business after the election

New report ranks Baltimore among stronger regions to weather the recession

New living wage proposal: wrong idea, wrong time for Baltimore

Northeast needs more attention from federal rail planners

New national report has familiar ring for Maryland bioscience advocates

New report underscores Maryland’s work force development challenges

State’s health initiative: a ‘win-win’ for employers and their workforces

As Baltimore hikes taxes, are state’s counties next?

After the ‘fiber from heaven’ scramble, what’s next?

BRAC growth no longer a future event – it’s happening now

Economic development is a contact sport

Despite the recession, bioscience growth still percolates in Baltimore

State stumbles in enacting new education collective bargaining process

Wind power has potential in Maryland, but solar emerges as early renewable option

It’s not good to be clueless in cyberspace

Amid fiscal shuffle, Maryland lawmakers pass measures to spur business growth

Thankfully, Baltimore leads with substance over style in luring Google

Leave damaging transportation provisions out of the budget

Amended budget continues recession-induced fund shifts and stimulus rescue

General Assembly setting stage for combined reporting push in 2011

Wrong timing for proposal to change Baltimore City school board

Baltimore City isn’t alone in facing pension funding challenges

A government investment program that delivers

Proposed transportation fund raid — a bad habit continues

Where’s the outrage over crime?

Small business is where innovation lives

Center Maryland continues its review of court records for candidates seeking local offices around Maryland. Today, we feature Baltimore City’s candidates for the Maryland legislature.

Too frequently in the past several years, unfortunate disclosures have emerged from court records about candidates – after the election has already taken place. So Center Maryland is going to publish the findings from its Maryland court record checks on the candidates and provide links to review the electronic files.

In many instances, the records seem relatively minor, and are unlikely to affect voters’ choices. For other candidates, the charges or civil lawsuits seem more serious. Center Maryland hopes this will inspire voters, or members of the print or broadcast media, to ask some additional questions.

Here are previous races that have been reviewed by Center Maryland:
Prince George’s County executive
Prince George’s County Council (Part 1)
Prince George’s County Council (Part 2)
Baltimore County Council (Part 1)
Baltimore County Council (Part 2)

For Center Maryland, Ben Waldron – a recent graduate of Tufts University – has been leading this records project.

If candidates want to add their own explanations for the court records — or if they believe that the records are in error — please email us your thoughts or comments at info@centermaryland.org . We will add your comments to the website. And if you think we missed an important case involving one of your opponents, you’re welcome to email Center Maryland, too.
House of Delegates

District 40

Frank M. Conaway, Jr.

11/17/1997 – Sinai Hospital Vs. Conaway. Contract suit. Conaway ordered to pay $461.95.

08/18/2003 – Thomas Vs. Conaway. Domestic violence, protective order. Case is closed.

Will J. Hanna, Jr.

08/10/1993 – District court for Baltimore City – Criminal System. Battery. Case placed on inactive docket.

06/25/1999 – District court for Prince George’s County – Criminal System. Summons for possession of Marijuana. Case not prosecuted.

07/17/2006 – A&G Management Company, Inc. Vs. Hanna. Regular claim. Case was ultimately dismissed.

Barbara A. Robinson

12/22/2004 – Bierman Vs. Self Pride Inc., et al. Foreclosure suit against an organization run by Robinson. Case was eventually dismissed due to lack of prosecution.

03/30/2006 – Chao Vs. Self Pride Inc., et al. Judge ruled that Robinson and Self Pride Inc. must pay $527,903.63 for back wages and liquidated damages.

10/06/2009 – Comdata Network Inc. VS. Star Associates Inc. Contract case against Robinson and her company, Star Associates Inc. Robinson and the company ordered to pay $1,326.58.

Shawn Z. Tarrant

District 41

Jill P. Carter

08/18/2006 – Director, Office Of Budge and Finance for Baltimore County Vs. Carter. Contract claim. Carter ordered to pay $158.

09/04/2007 – Townsend Vs. Carter. Contract claim. Carter ordered to pay $236.15.

03/12/2008 – Burson Vs. Carter. Contract claim. Case was ultimately dismissed due to lack of prosecution.

08/29/2008 – Capital One Bank USA NA Vs. Carter. Contract claim. Capital One sued Carter for $1,020.07. Case remains active.

04/01/2009 – District court for Anne Arundel County – Criminal System. Failure to file campaign finance. Case was ultimately dropped by prosecutor.

07/30/2010 – Director Office of Budget and Finance for Baltimore County Vs. Carter. Contract claim. Plaintiff sued Carter for $132. Case remains active.

Nathaniel T. Oaks

04/12/2002 – Jack & Harvey Inc. Vs. Oaks, et al. Complaint for Ejectment. Case was eventually dismissed by court.

06/30/2003 – Henry Vs. Oaks. Contract claim. Oaks ordered to pay $1,318.

Samuel I. “Sandy” Rosenberg

Mark Ehrlichmann

District 43

Curt Anderson

01/20/2010 – De Lage Landen Financial Services Vs. Anderson. Foreign claim. Anderson ordered to pay $4,712.93.

Rodney C. Burris

Kelly Fox

Leon Winthly Hector, Sr.

Maggie McIntosh

Mary Washington

District 44

Chris Blake

Gary T. English

05/13/1992 – District Court for Baltimore City – Criminal System. Found guilty of battery.

10/06/1995 – District Court for Baltimore County – Criminal System. Charged with two counts of battery. Found guilty of one count.

Arlene B. Fisher

Keith E. Haynes

Ruth M. Kirk

06/15/2000 – Baltimore Gas & Electric CO. Vs. Kirk. Contract suit. Kirk ordered to pay $428.67.

Keiffer J. Mitchell, Jr.

Melvin L. Stukes

Billy Taylor

Brian D. Jones

Trae Lewis

District 45

Talmadge Branch

10/13/1994 – Ellerbe, Marian & Antonio Vs. Branch. Tort claim. Branch ordered to pay $8,522.33.

10/13/1994 – Allen Vs. Branch. Tort claim. Branch ordered to pay $6,500.

02/11/2004 – Flanigan Vs. Branch. Motor tort. Case was ultimately dismissed.

Cheryl D. Glenn

03/31/2004 – Seton Imaging Center Vs. Glenn. Contract claim. Case was ultimately dismissed.

06/22/2005 – GE Money Bank Vs. Glenn. Contract claim. Case was ultimately dismissed.

Hattie N. Harrison

05/16/2008 – Sun Trust Bank Vs. Harrison. Contract claim. Harrison ordered to pay $1,059.08.

Kevin W. Parson

10/27/2003 – Capital One Bank Vs. Parson. Contract claim. Parson ordered to pay $1,135.97.

09/24/2008 – Director Office of Budget & Finance for Baltimore County Vs. Parson. Contract claim. Case was ultimately dismissed.

10/18/2008 – District Court for Baltimore City – Traffic System. Driving vehicle on highway with suspended registration. Fined $140.

05/14/2009 – District Court for Baltimore County – Traffic System. Driving without current tags, failure to maintain required security for vehicle during registration period, operating motor vehicle with operator/occupant under age 16 not restrained by seatbelt, driving motor vehicle on highway on suspended license. Parson received probation before judgment.

Jamaal D. Simpson

06/22/2006 – Director, Office of Budge & Financing for Baltimore County Vs. Simpson. Contract claim. Simpson ordered to pay $223.

12/10/2008 – Pasadena Receivables Inc. Vs. Simpson. Contract claim. Simpson ordered to pay $570.17.

02/06/2009 – District Court for Baltimore City – Criminal System. Theft: Less than $500 value. Case was ultimately dropped by the prosecution.

Rick Saffery

Larry O. Wardlow, Jr.

09/04/1993 – District Court for Baltimore City – Criminal System. Possession – Not Marijuana. Case was ultimately dropped by prosecutor.

10/23/1993 – District Court for Baltimore City – Criminal System. Disorderly in Pubic, Disobeying police. Case was ultimately dropped by prosecutor.

03/16/1996 – District Court for Baltimore City – Criminal System. Deadly weapon – intent to injure, Disorderly in Public Place. Case placed on inactive docket.

03/02/2000 – Smith Vs. Wardlow. Tort claim. Wardlow ordered to pay $10,000.

04/14/2002 – District Court for Baltimore County – Criminal System. Disorderly contact. Case placed on inactive docket.

08/15/2002 – Wardlow Vs. Wardlow. Domestic violence, protective order.

03/30/2003 – District Court for Baltimore City – Criminal System. Assault – second degree. Defendant committed and then released.

05/02/2003 – District Court for Baltimore City – Criminal System. Assault – first degree. Wardlow plead guilty, received probation after conviction.

06/12/2009 – District Court for Baltimore City – Criminal System. Assault – second degree. Prosecutors dropped the case.

06/16/2009 – A&A Realty Investment Inc. Vs. Wardlow. Contract claim. Wardlow ordered to pay $4,349.25.

06/24/2010 – District Court for Baltimore City – Criminal System. Failure to obey lawful order. Prosecutors dropped the case.

Ronald M. Owens-Bey

05/20/2004 – District Court for Anne Arundel County – Criminal System. Five counts each of Failure to pay late fee and Failure to file. Case was ultimately dropped by prosecutor.

District 46

Luke Clippinger

09/17/2007 – Circuit Court for Baltimore City – Civil System. Motor Tort case. Case was ultimately dismissed.

Jason Filippou

05/11/2009 – District Court for Baltimore City – Traffic System. Operating motor vehicle with operator and occupant under age 16 not restrained by seatbelt. Plead guilty and was fined $25.

Peter A. Hammen

Brian K. McHale

Bill Romani

Melissa A. Techentin

Roger Bedingfield

State Senate

District 40

Catherine Pugh

07/24/2006 – Palisades Collection LLC Vs. Pugh. Contract claim. Case was ultimately dismissed.

02/01/2008 – Bush Plumbing & Heating Inc. Vs. Pugh. Contract claim. Case was ultimately dismissed.

District 41

Lisa Gladden

08/27/1998 – Ardella Vs. Gladden. Tort claim. Gladden ordered to pay $2,144.

04/29/2004 – Parkview Crossing Community Assn., Inc. Vs. Gladden. Contract claim. Case was ultimately dismissed.

06/02/2004 – Baltimore Gas and Electric Co. Vs. Gladden. Contract claim. Gladden ordered to pay $480.39.

09/15/2004 – Corporate Mailing Services, Inc. Vs. Gladden. Contract claim. Case was ultimately dismissed.

06/16/2005 – Servpro of Catonsville, Inc. Vs. Gladden. Contract claim. Gladden ordered to pay $250.

01/29/2007 – Director, Office of Budget and Finance for Baltimore County Vs. Gladden. Contract claim. Case was ultimately dismissed.

District 43

Joan Carter Conway

02/09/1999 – District Court for Baltimore City – Criminal System. Obstructing firefighters etc. Case was ultimately dropped by prosecutor.

Hector L. Torres

District 44

Verna Jones

Bernard Joseph Reiter

Summit Aneshthesia Vs. Reither. Contract claim. Case was ultimately dismissed.

District 45

Nathaniel J. McFadden

06/23/1995 – McCauely Vs. McFadden. Motor tort. McFadden ordered to pay $6,500.

03/29/2000 – Curran, et al Vs. McFadden, et al. Foreclosure suit. Plaintiff awarded possession of property.

03/26/2007 – Garrison Vs. McFadden. Motor tort. McFadden ordered to pay a total of $1,878.14.

District 46

George W. Della

09/06/1985 – Schlueter Vs. Walls, et al. Della listed as a defendant in a motor tort suit. Decision not included in case record.

12/31/1985 – Hertzbach, Sapperstein & Sidle PA Vs. Della. Civil claim. Decision not included in case record.

11/19/1991 – Della-Massing Vs. Della. General equity case. Decision not included in case record.

10/13/1994 – Della Vs. Della. Civil suit. Case was ultimately dismissed.

01/26/2006 – Jenkins Vs. Advent Senior Housing Inc. Della listed as primary defendant in contract claim. Case was ultimately dismissed.

07/06/2010 – Hammer Vs. Della, et al. Civil suit. Case is currently active.

Bill Ferguson

Maryland voters continue to be pessimistic about the state’s economy, with 82 percent saying they believe Maryland’s economy is either getting worse or staying about the same, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

The Center Maryland / OpinionWorks telephone poll of likely voters also found that one-third of Marylanders worry every day about their own households’ financial situation, and another third of Marylanders worry sometimes. (Click here to see the question and results.)

“As far as individual households are concerned, the economic situation has just not gotten better,” said Steve Raabe, president and founder of the Annapolis-based OpinionWorks, which conducted the poll in conjunction with the non-profit Center Maryland. “Despite some positive news in the larger economy, these numbers at the household level have not improved.”

The Center Maryland / OpinionWorks Statewide Voter Survey was conducted August 13-18, 2010. The telephone survey questioned 600 likely General Election voters statewide, and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points. The sample was balanced by region of the state, political party, age, gender, and race/ethnicity to reflect the characteristics of Maryland’s likely voter population.

In being asked how they view the state’s economy, only 15 percent of Maryland voters said they believe the economy is getting better, while 39 percent said they see it getting worse. The poll found 43 percent see it staying about the same. (Click here to see the question and results.)

The numbers are virtually unchanged from previous statewide polling that Raabe’s company has done. For example, last November, OpinionWorks found that 12 percent of Maryland voters thought the economy was getting better, while 41 percent said they saw it getting worse and 45 percent believed the economy was staying about the same.

Similarly, that November poll found that 34 percent of Maryland voters reported worrying every day about their own households’ financial situation, while 35 percent said they worry sometimes and 31 percent said they do not worry.

”It is hard to overstate the economic stress Maryland households feel, and that stress overhangs all public policy questions involving taxing and spending in this election year,” said Raabe, whose firm has extensive experience polling in Maryland political races, including for the Baltimore Sun during recent campaigns

This month’s poll also asked Marylanders for their views on the taxes they pay to state government compared to the services they receive. Four in 10 voters described their state taxes as “much too high,” while 22 percent said their taxes are “a little too high.” One-third called their taxes “reasonable” for the services provided by the state, and 2 percent said they believe their taxes are too low. (Click here to see the question and results.)

“Maryland has traditionally not been an anti-tax state. When 61 percent of Maryland voters think their state taxes are too high compared to the services they receive, leaders must take note,” Raabe said.

In the November poll conducted by OpinionWorks, 59 percent of Marylanders said their taxes were too high, while 36 percent said taxes were reasonable and 2 percent said they were too low.

Who conducted the poll:

OpinionWorks is a research firm based in Annapolis that has extensive experience conducting polling and focus group surveys in Maryland and around the country. Recent clients include the Baltimore Sun, New York City Mayor’s Office, Florida Courts System, and non-profit organizations working in such areas as mass transit, health care, higher education, water protection, and museums and the arts. (www.opinionworks.com)

Center Maryland is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit media outlet that highlights issues of real importance to job creation and economic growth in Maryland – with straight-down-the-middle reporting by professional journalists. Center Maryland features weekly columns from Donald Fry, President of the Greater Baltimore Committee, and long-time Maryland political commentator Josh Kurtz. Center Maryland’s website (www.centermaryland.org) and daily email provide the most comprehensive aggregation of media sources in Maryland.

Imagine a candidate for governor who is young, handsome and wealthy, an entrepreneur, the ultimate political outsider, with hard-line, conservative positions on illegal immigration and taxes and abortion. Now imagine he’s been endorsed by Sarah Palin, the one Republican folk hero out there. Wouldn’t you think, in this throw-the-bums-out election year, that he’d have a pretty good chance of winning the Republican nomination?

Welcome to Maryland, Brian Murphy, where political logic is often turned on its head, and where the state Republican Party has been a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bob Ehrlich for so long that the man on the street would be hard-pressed to name another Maryland Republican, even if you offered him $1,000.

Murphy is a young, handsome businessman running for governor of Maryland as the ultimate political outsider. He’s got hard-line conservative positions on a range of issues and a surprising endorsement from Sarah Palin in his pocket.

And in a recent poll conducted for Center Maryland by OpinionWorks, he could not top 13 percent in a head-to-head Republican primary match-up with Ehrlich.

Whether the question was asked of all GOP voters, probable voters or certain voters, Murphy was stuck at 13 percent. Ehrlich topped 70 percent among all three categories of Republicans.

This is interesting and significant for a variety of reasons.

The name Robert Fustero haunts Maryland Democratic insiders of recent vintage. He’s the grocery bagger who took 20 percent of the vote against Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary without spending a dime — an early warning sign, which proved correct, that Townsend might have trouble with Ehrlich in the general election.

Just a couple of days before I saw the Center Maryland poll results, I talked to two valued Republican sources about Murphy and his potential. One, a political insider and strategist, said he’d be watching Murphy’s primary percentage closely and that a showing of 35 percent would be not just a warning signal for Ehrlich, but a death knell — and he did not completely discount the possibility of that happening.

The other Republican, a grass-roots conservative activist, said that while Murphy’s positions were certainly to the right of Ehrlich, the neophyte candidate had not done enough to cultivate conservatives and should not be taken seriously.

Food for thought — and possibly totally meaningless now that Murphy has clocked in at 13 percent in the poll. Thirteen percent! With all that potential upside, that’s not even Fustero territory.

Murphy could bring some of those numbers up. He could unload more of his own money into late TV ads. Palin could come in and campaign for him (don’t hold your breath). The immigration issue could yield unforeseen dividends. More likely, though, Murphy will struggle to reach the Fustero Line.

If nothing else, it’s a testament to the hold Ehrlich has had — and continues to have — on Maryland Republicans. Since Ehrlich’s election to Congress in 1994, the state GOP has been a cult of personality with one man — Ehrlich — at its center. Who knows? If Ehrlich was more “we” instead of “me” — even though he frequently speaks in the third person — he might have reached out to Brian Murphy, an appealing guy with political promise, and talked him into running for state comptroller or some other attainable office.

The prospect of Ehrlich losing in November must be scary for Maryland Republicans, because they’ve invested so much in the man and have no place to turn when he exits the stage. Of course, he may not exit the stage. Mark my words, even if Ehrlich loses to Gov. Martin O’Malley (D) in November, someone will be talking about him making a political comeback in a matter of months.

But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. The Center Maryland poll reveals that Ehrlich may not lose — in fact, he has a pretty good chance of winning. The first head-to-head numbers between Ehrlich and O’Malley look pretty good for the Democrats — O’Malley was leading, 48 percent to 40 percent. But that’s among all likely voters surveyed. When you get to voters who say they are certain to go to hte polls in November, the race is effectively tied, with O’Malley at 45 percent and Ehrlich at 44 percent.

This shows that the intensity among Republicans is way higher than it is among Democrats — a situation that follows the national trend. And that’s a great big sign of danger for O’Malley and his fellow Democrats. All the evidence points to this being a very good November for Republicans from coast-to-coast.

Back at this point in 1998, Democratic Gov. Parris Glendening was running roughly even in the polls with his Republican challenger, Ellen Sauerbrey. But in the final weeks of the campaign, Democrats found an effective attack line against Sauerbrey, and at the national level, it improbably became a Democratic year because voters disliked the fact that Congressional Republicans were trying to impeach President Bill Clinton. Glendening wound up winning by 10 points.

It’s possible that Democrats will find an effective line of attack against Ehrlich this fall, and it’s also possible that voters will perceive national Republicans as overreaching in their attacks on President Barack Obama and other Democrats. But that’s an awfully thin reed for O’Malley and his allies to hang their hopes on.

Josh Kurtz is editor of Environment & Energy Daily, a Capitol Hill publication. He can be reached at joshkurtz92@gmail.com.

Previous Center Maryland columns by Josh Kurtz:

A Gene for Public Service

No Agnew Here

The Full Montgomery

Shock and Tawes

Uly’s Gold

Death and Deadlines

Bad News for Democrats From Washington to Washington County

Mr. Smith Goes … Where?

End of the Line for Vallario?

Mission: Control

Post Plays Favorites

Red Storm Rising

Michael & Me

Wanted: Fresh Blood

Taylor-Made

Black and Blue?

Slugfest

Take Me Back to Old Virginny

The Political Lives of Peter Franchot

Bob and Weave

How to Make Prince George’s County King

Kane is Able

To Be Frank

Gay Rights and Political Wrongs?

The Washington Post Goes to War

Snow Job

Unsolicited Advice for Ehrlich — Wait Till 2014

The Early Bird Gets the Worm?

Wayne’s World May Be Another Planet

Miller Time Comes Early

Owings Owes an Explanation

Gov. Martin O’Malley leads former Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. 47 percent to 41 percent among likely voters in November’s general election, according to a new poll released Tuesday.

The Center Maryland / OpinionWorks telephone poll of likely Maryland voters also found that 49 percent approve of the job O’Malley is doing as governor, compared to 39 percent who disapprove. (Click here to see the question and results.)

When asked whether things in Maryland are headed in the “right direction” or “off on the wrong track,” 40 percent of likely voters said right direction, while 42 percent said wrong track. (Click here to see the question and results.)

“These are not great numbers for Governor O’Malley considering the partisan tilt of the state, but on balance, he is still up,” said Steve Raabe, president and founder of the Annapolis-based OpinionWorks, which conducted the poll in conjunction with the non-profit Center Maryland. “Dissatisfaction with O’Malley is not that intense. Particularly in these economic times, you would expect it to be worse.”

The Center Maryland / OpinionWorks Statewide Voter Survey was conducted August 13-18, 2010. The telephone survey questioned 600 likely General Election voters statewide, and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points. The sample was balanced by region of the state, political party, age, gender, and race/ethnicity to reflect the characteristics of Maryland’s likely voter population.

To assess the opinions of voters most likely to vote in November’s election, the poll asked whether they are certain or probable to vote. That created a group of 551 voters, with a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points. The poll model assumes that African-American voters will comprise 19 percent of the overall Maryland turnout – a smaller percentage than the actual turnout in the most recent Maryland statewide elections but reflective of likely voting patterns this year.

The survey found a greater intensity among Republicans and other Ehrlich supporters in their desire to vote in November’s General Election, according to Raabe.

Among voters who said they are “certain” to vote, O’Malley leads Ehrlich by 1 percentage point, 45 percent to 44 percent. But for all voters who identified their likelihood to vote as “50-50” or better, O’Malley’s lead grew larger, 48 percent to 40 percent. (Click here to see the question and results.)

“For O’Malley, it is all about turnout and motivating the base,” said Raabe, whose firm has extensive experience polling in Maryland political races, including for the Baltimore Sun during recent campaigns. “If they can produce a normal gubernatorial election turnout, they should have a relatively comfortable margin, barring an event this fall that changes the shape of the race.

“But this is not a normal year. There is a greater intensity among Republicans. If the soft Democrats stay home, Ehrlich has a solid chance,” Raabe said. “Some of those soft Democrats are going to come – that really is O’Malley’s hope. The question is how many.”

So far, O’Malley has significantly more money in the bank for the campaign compared to Ehrlich. Since early last month, O’Malley has been spending about $160,000 a week on television advertising in the Baltimore market, according to the Baltimore Sun, and Ehrlich has not answered.

In 1998 – the last time Maryland featured a gubernatorial rematch from the election four years earlier – a poll taken prior to the September primary had Gov. Parris N. Glendening ahead by only 1 percentage point over Republican Ellen R. Sauerbrey. Glendening went on to win easily in November.

While Republicans are hoping to pick up congressional and state seats in races across the nation, the poll found that the GOP has not yet persuaded Maryland voters to give them support. They appear positioned to make only modest pickups in Maryland.

When asked whether they intended to vote for more Republicans or more Democrats in the fall’s state and local elections, 43 percent of likely voters said Democrats and 31 percent said Republicans. (Click here to see the question and results.) Seventy-two percent of Republicans and 67 percent of Democrats plan to vote for most of the candidates of their own party, while Independents gave the Republican candidates a 2-point edge. In Maryland, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin.

Who conducted the poll:

OpinionWorks is a research firm based in Annapolis that has extensive experience conducting polling and focus group surveys in Maryland and around the country. Recent clients include the Baltimore Sun, New York City Mayor’s Office, Florida Courts System, and non-profit organizations working in such areas as mass transit, health care, higher education, water protection, and museums and the arts. (www.opinionworks.com)

Center Maryland is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit media outlet that highlights issues of real importance to job creation and economic growth in Maryland – with straight-down-the-middle reporting by professional journalists. Center Maryland features weekly columns from Donald Fry, President of the Greater Baltimore Committee, and long-time Maryland political commentator Josh Kurtz. Center Maryland’s website (www.centermaryland.org) and daily email provide the most comprehensive aggregation of media sources in Maryland.